We are losing this war.

By Doubtless

1.
For every dollar spent by Al Qaida we spend a million (that is also our estimate). We can protect the oil fields but everyone knows we cannot protect the pipelines cheaply. To protect the supply lines will add billions to our tab. The largest beneficiary of the recent oil price increase has been the oil suppliers, and that means that those who donate money to Al Qaida have benefited. We supply the dollars which are donated to the Al Qaida. We have plugged the major routes for the donations but it is the small holes that are nearly impossible and it is that million to one ratio that gets us eventually.

2.
Al Qaida is not an organization that can be defeated by police action as in Falluja or in Iraq. We have lost Iraq. The conclusion is merely to unfold. If we try to impose westernized Iraqis we will face insurgency of the wahhabis joined by the Shias of the south. If we let the elections be then we make the anti-American mullahs the ruling clique. Either way we will withdraw declaring victory because we have held elections and the Iraqi Christians will pay by being totally eliminated. We will be dealing with "death to the great Satan" ayatollahs of the Iraqi variety.

3.
Consequence of 2 above will be that the insurgency will then move in full force into the desert of Saudi Arabia and the house of Saud will be history. It has no legitimacy and will not stand. Welcome to an anti-American Arabian government within the next five years.

4.
Muslims around the world are joining the movement because they smell blood. They sense victory. We treat Al Qaida as a police action, as a terrorist group that has little or no backing. We claim to have wiped 2/3 of the group, but we do not mention the hundred of thousands in Europe and in America who are now beginning to make their minds about which side they want to align themselves. And all indications are that Al Qaida is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the Muslims big time.

5.
Calls for isolation of the Muslims is the call for the Israeli solution of building a big big wall. We can do that and we will protect the homeland via homeland security but the cost to doing trade and dealing with the rest of the world (Europe, china, India, far east) will be exacted from us and not from the Chinese and the Indians. We will find our trade with Europe and companies and their boards doing trade with us will be targeted.

6. And then there is Iran. A nuclear Iran. An Iran where even our allies of allies UK is saying that taking the route of force is simply out of the question. Iran will be nuclear within 2 years. Saddam was 10 years away. Are we ready to take Iran on also without the Europeans? As the Mohamed ElBaradei of the UN said today, that nuclear proliferation race is on and it is a race against time. Are we really intent on winning this race? Bush and company better start bringing the American public along on this one.

Better get used to this. This war is not going to be easy and it certainly is not going to be cheap. Most Americans do not have a clue of how long and how difficult this is going to be. Unfortunately a lot of Americans are viewing this as a short term movie that is going to be over soon (in a few years maximum), we will capture Osama, we will kick ass in Fallujah, we will have elections in Iraq, and will we have moved any closer to victory? I think that is when reality will start setting in. The national debt will be over 10 trillion dollars by the end of Bush jr. term, and with that kitty we will be facing a world wide reinvigorated insurgency with very capable political arms. Better start smelling that coffee.

But then those who ache for the arrival of Rapture may see all of the above as very hopeful signs and may just want it to happen.