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Chinese factor and the war on terror : pray that I'm wrong.

By  Yawdriht

I believe that this site takes a very naive approach towards the war with Iraq. While it is honorable to be concerned about Saddam's atrocities and feel sympathetic for the Iraqi people, this humanitarian approach does not stand a chance in the real world. You can be nice to your family member or your friend but if you start a war for the sake of being nice...nothing nice will come out of it. The world doesn't work that way-- anybody who have studied some history should see it.

Now let me propose a scenario that can unravel due to the foolish actions of the United States and their few allies. A knot that is being tied even as we speak here may take a long time to untie.

Iraq

The war on Iraq will probably end with Saddam Hussein's regime being substituted with a puppet government placed by the United States. While it probably will be more humane than the current one, it is unlikely to make Iraq's standard of living comparable with that of the industrialized Western nations. Never have a stable democracy been established in a country that hasn't met certain prerequisites-- one has to be ready for democracy as a result of evolution from within. The examples of Japan or Germany often brought up by proponents of "Iraqi Freedom" are not applicable to the situation, as the two countries had reached a certain level of cultural and economical development when the Americans were "rebuilding" those countries.

As the Iraqi society is not ready for a modern liberal way of life, it will seek to counter its inevitable difficulties with oppressive ideologies. The most obvious, of course, is Islam. This is hapenning in "democratic" Algeria, Pakistan, Malasya or Turkey and this happenned in Germany-- politically naive people trusted and trust a brutal force that would dominate them and answer all their questions without them making any effort for progress. It seems almost certain, then, that large groups of Iraqi population will place their trust on Islam as the solution. This only becomes more probable if one takes into account that Saddam Hussein was aggressevily anti-Islamic and what was suppressed by him will spring out once that suppression is eliminated.

With powerful external forces (especially the Saudi) flaming the Islamic fire withing Iraq, that country will not be stable but will have to be kept together by huge military and economical American resources. Another adverse factor that will add to this instability are the Kurds who are likely to break away from Iraq and thus create tensions not only between North Iraqi Arabs and the Kurds but also involve into the conflict Turkey and Iran that have Kurdish populations.

Muslim World

American involvement in Islamic World has never been popular and has been accomponied with strong Islamist anti-Western centiment in that region. American support for Israel and also support of unpopular dictatorial regimes (the Shah of Iran or Mubarak of Egypt) creates a paranoia in many Muslim minds that America is out to destroy their culture. Islamists have been successful fostering and manipulating that feeling.

War on Iraq, being an unpovoked and illegal attack on an independent country takes American involvement in the region to an unprecedented level. Such involvement is bound to multiply anti-American sentiment and support for Islamism that comes with it many times. Islamic revolutions become probable in many Muslim countries, especially where corrupt West-supported regimes are in place. States in extreme danger are Egypt and Pakistan-- both rather powerful by Third World standards. Turkey is also what I would call an "unnatural" democracy held together by the military; therefore, it'll be at risk as well, thus possibly leaving the US with no supporters in the Muslim world.

Along with the Islamist reaction following the war, Kurdish problem can aggravate the situation severely, creating a conflict involving Iraq, Turkey and, possibly, Iran and Syria. Unfortunately, the solution to this conflict can become Islam-- the only commonality on all sides. This, in fact, happenned once in Afganistan where the Taliban was the only force that could pacify ethnic conflicts.

The above movements in the region will certainly facilitate extremism and terrorism against the USA and, possibly, other Western countries. The USA is bound to get militarily engaged in these future conflicts and its "war on terror" will grow more and more, undermining stability in the region. What's even worse is that fundamentalists will engage neighboring non-Muslim countries such as India or countries struggling with Muslim separatists such as the Phillipines. The USA is also bound to get involved there-- as a part of its war on terror.

American and global economy

Due to huge military spendings, neccessitated by the ever-growing "war on terror" and instability in oil-reach regions (that are vital for American Economy), America's financial might is likely to suffer, dragging world economy along. Its ability to invest abroad will shrink, thus making other countries less dependent on it.

Internal reprecussions for the US are grim and will be excacerbated by the Administration's aggressive ambitions (supported by poorly informed public) abroad. They are not my focus here, however. One point worth making, though, is that during war time democracy always suffers thus hurting the ability of society to influence policies of its leaders. USA is in danger of becoming a tyranical power, thus making itself more unpopular in the world.

World Communuty

Just like League of Nations lost its importance with empowerment of the Axis powers, so will UN with empowerment of the USA, left unrivalled after the collapse of USSR. International relations are becoming based on force alone and the post WWII order is collapsing.

China

The Chinese are certainly entertaining ambitions of a superpower. As of now, they are not even a superpower in East Asia with Japan being the most powerful economy there and Taiwan getting away with its de-facto independence. But Chinese leaders are not inclined to tolerate America's dominance in East Asia forever and are not claiming their rights because of two reasons.

First, they are fearing America's military response to China's aggressive actions (especially in the case of rebellious Taiwan). American Army is still not an equal adversary for Chinese huge but not technologically superior forces.

More importantly, however, is China's tremendous reliance on America's economic involvement. China's impressive economic growth so far has been largely due to American investments. If not for partnership with the US, China would not be much better off then North Korea. It is evident, then, why China would be reluctant to jeopordize this golden link to the US.

Both of these obstacles to Chinese dominance in the region, however, will be removed if the Muslim World follows the scenario described by me. First, American military will be tied down far away from China. Second, American economy will get weaker and therefore less valuable to China. With China's technological growth (one of the most impressive in the world) and America's decline, the chances are that at some point China will not need America's dollars. It will move against America openly by seizing Taiwan-- it has been indicated by Chinese leadership that the Chinese people are "ready to shed a lot of blood to ensure integrity of their motherland".

It does not take a scholar to realize that China's confrontation with the USA that is inevitable in case Taiwan is seized, will mean the start of Word War III. Islam and China on one side and almost everyone else on the other. While Chinese Communism and Islam are antagonistic ideologically, the two are bound to side with each other temporarily, as they both share a common enemy-- the USA and, possibly, the West as a whole. This did happen in the case of Germany and Japan. India will be dragged into the war because of Pakistan's claims on Kashmir and Russia due to both hostilities in its Muslim regions and China's lust for sparsely-populated Siberia and Far East.

We may be looking at world-breaking paralelled only to World War II.

 

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