Chinese factor and the war on terror : pray that I'm
I believe that this site takes a very naive
approach towards the war with Iraq. While it is honorable to be concerned
about Saddam's atrocities and feel sympathetic for the Iraqi people, this
humanitarian approach does not stand a chance in the real world. You can
be nice to your family member or your friend but if you start a war for
the sake of being nice...nothing nice will come out of it. The world
doesn't work that way-- anybody who have studied some history should see
Now let me propose a scenario that can unravel due to the foolish actions
of the United States and their few allies. A knot that is being tied even
as we speak here may take a long time to untie.
The war on Iraq will probably end with Saddam Hussein's regime being
substituted with a puppet government placed by the United States. While it
probably will be more humane than the current one, it is unlikely to make
Iraq's standard of living comparable with that of the industrialized
Western nations. Never have a stable democracy been established in a
country that hasn't met certain prerequisites-- one has to be ready for
democracy as a result of evolution from within. The examples of Japan or
Germany often brought up by proponents of "Iraqi Freedom" are
not applicable to the situation, as the two countries had reached a
certain level of cultural and economical development when the Americans
were "rebuilding" those countries.
As the Iraqi society is not ready for a modern liberal way of life, it
will seek to counter its inevitable difficulties with oppressive
ideologies. The most obvious, of course, is Islam. This is hapenning in
"democratic" Algeria, Pakistan, Malasya or Turkey and this
happenned in Germany-- politically naive people trusted and trust a brutal
force that would dominate them and answer all their questions without them
making any effort for progress. It seems almost certain, then, that large
groups of Iraqi population will place their trust on Islam as the
solution. This only becomes more probable if one takes into account that
Saddam Hussein was aggressevily anti-Islamic and what was suppressed by
him will spring out once that suppression is eliminated.
With powerful external forces (especially the Saudi) flaming the Islamic
fire withing Iraq, that country will not be stable but will have to be
kept together by huge military and economical American resources. Another
adverse factor that will add to this instability are the Kurds who are
likely to break away from Iraq and thus create tensions not only between
North Iraqi Arabs and the Kurds but also involve into the conflict Turkey
and Iran that have Kurdish populations.
American involvement in Islamic World has never been popular and has been
accomponied with strong Islamist anti-Western centiment in that region.
American support for Israel and also support of unpopular dictatorial
regimes (the Shah of Iran or Mubarak of Egypt) creates a paranoia in many
Muslim minds that America is out to destroy their culture. Islamists have
been successful fostering and manipulating that feeling.
War on Iraq, being an unpovoked and illegal attack on an independent
country takes American involvement in the region to an unprecedented
level. Such involvement is bound to multiply anti-American sentiment and
support for Islamism that comes with it many times. Islamic revolutions
become probable in many Muslim countries, especially where corrupt
West-supported regimes are in place. States in extreme danger are Egypt
and Pakistan-- both rather powerful by Third World standards. Turkey is
also what I would call an "unnatural" democracy held together by
the military; therefore, it'll be at risk as well, thus possibly leaving
the US with no supporters in the Muslim world.
Along with the Islamist reaction following the war, Kurdish problem can
aggravate the situation severely, creating a conflict involving Iraq,
Turkey and, possibly, Iran and Syria. Unfortunately, the solution to this
conflict can become Islam-- the only commonality on all sides. This, in
fact, happenned once in Afganistan where the Taliban was the only force
that could pacify ethnic conflicts.
The above movements in the region will certainly facilitate extremism and
terrorism against the USA and, possibly, other Western countries. The USA
is bound to get militarily engaged in these future conflicts and its
"war on terror" will grow more and more, undermining stability
in the region. What's even worse is that fundamentalists will engage
neighboring non-Muslim countries such as India or countries struggling
with Muslim separatists such as the Phillipines. The USA is also bound to
get involved there-- as a part of its war on terror.
American and global economy
Due to huge military spendings, neccessitated by the ever-growing
"war on terror" and instability in oil-reach regions (that are
vital for American Economy), America's financial might is likely to
suffer, dragging world economy along. Its ability to invest abroad will
shrink, thus making other countries less dependent on it.
Internal reprecussions for the US are grim and will be excacerbated by the
Administration's aggressive ambitions (supported by poorly informed
public) abroad. They are not my focus here, however. One point worth
making, though, is that during war time democracy always suffers thus
hurting the ability of society to influence policies of its leaders. USA
is in danger of becoming a tyranical power, thus making itself more
unpopular in the world.
Just like League of Nations lost its importance with empowerment of the
Axis powers, so will UN with empowerment of the USA, left unrivalled after
the collapse of USSR. International relations are becoming based on force
alone and the post WWII order is collapsing.
The Chinese are certainly entertaining ambitions of a superpower. As of
now, they are not even a superpower in East Asia with Japan being the most
powerful economy there and Taiwan getting away with its de-facto
independence. But Chinese leaders are not inclined to tolerate America's
dominance in East Asia forever and are not claiming their rights because
of two reasons.
First, they are fearing America's military response to China's aggressive
actions (especially in the case of rebellious Taiwan). American Army is
still not an equal adversary for Chinese huge but not technologically
More importantly, however, is China's tremendous reliance on America's
economic involvement. China's impressive economic growth so far has been
largely due to American investments. If not for partnership with the US,
China would not be much better off then North Korea. It is evident, then,
why China would be reluctant to jeopordize this golden link to the US.
Both of these obstacles to Chinese dominance in the region, however, will
be removed if the Muslim World follows the scenario described by me.
First, American military will be tied down far away from China. Second,
American economy will get weaker and therefore less valuable to China.
With China's technological growth (one of the most impressive in the
world) and America's decline, the chances are that at some point China
will not need America's dollars. It will move against America openly by
seizing Taiwan-- it has been indicated by Chinese leadership that the
Chinese people are "ready to shed a lot of blood to ensure integrity
of their motherland".
It does not take a scholar to realize that China's confrontation with the
USA that is inevitable in case Taiwan is seized, will mean the start of
Word War III. Islam and China on one side and almost everyone else on the
other. While Chinese Communism and Islam are antagonistic ideologically,
the two are bound to side with each other temporarily, as they both share
a common enemy-- the USA and, possibly, the West as a whole. This did
happen in the case of Germany and Japan. India will be dragged into the
war because of Pakistan's claims on Kashmir and Russia due to both
hostilities in its Muslim regions and China's lust for sparsely-populated
Siberia and Far East.
We may be looking at world-breaking paralelled only to World War II.