Crossfire War: Middle East - Central Asia: Teheran - Dushnabe - The Offensive Spectrum

Willard Payne 

2005/05/27

Night Watch: TEHERAN - Tajikistan , represented by her Defense Minister Sherali Khairulloyev, conferred here Saturday with his Iranian counterpart Rear Admiral Ali Shamkani, as reported by IRNA. In an obvious signal to Russia and those who provide Moscow with her hard currency, principally Berlin , the two defense ministers signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on expansion of defense cooperation between the two countries.

What the international investment community must realize is that there is no luxury of time anymore. The automatic response to serious warnings is “Let’s wait and see what happens”. In the meantime serious preparations Iran , and other Islamic countries are making for all out war are ignored. Because of this extended visit the Council of Guardians know that Russia ’s military base in Tajikistan , designed to monitor high orbital objects, is at extreme risk. So are the investments and projections the industrialized world has made to develop more of the regions vast resources. Teheran wants the development to occur, but under their control. Unfortunately more realization will not occur until the shooting becomes all out. A year ago it was somewhat reassuring that the New York Times did mention that Russia can wage a defensive war.

This visit may have led to the announcement by Moscow of the withdrawal of Russian units from the Afghan-Tajik border to a less vulnerable position. The MoU calls for expansion of technical, logistics and educational cooperation between the two nations. I assume the educational part of the agreement really means training in use of equipment.

Addressing reporters, Shamkani said that under the MoU, Iran will help Tajik military personnel maintain and overhaul military equipment, provide them with various educational courses in military and enforcement of border guards. He continued that the expansion of defense and military cooperation between countries in the region will deter foreign forces who aim to find a foothold in the region on the pretext of restoring security.

In making reference to the visit by Khairulloyev as well as Shamkani’s recent visit to Baku , on the Caspian Sea, he said the Islamic Republic of Iran has embarked on confidence-building measures and expansion of defense and military cooperation with Central Asian states and Caucasus to reduce the threats resulting from the ceding of military bases to third countries. That could be a direct reference and threat to Allied bases in Kyrgyzstan , Uzbekistan and Afghanistan .

Tajikistan ’s defense minister first visited Iran in 1999 and he remarked on how Iran has experienced, what he described, as a very successful scientific breakthrough in the field such that it could be considered as among the top military powers in the world.

Khairulloyev was especially impressed by Iran ’s advanced capabilities in military industries and that Iran had helped Tajikistan ’s “juvenile” military industry to undergo significant development among its counterparts in Central Asian states and reach the highest defense capabilities. He also repeated Iran ’s public posture of peaceful application of nuclear technology.

I assume he will be given private access to Iran ’s command and control centers of their military-industrial complexes, constructed by Bechtel Group. During the Gulf War, 1990-91, the media would be given a tour of the underground facilities Bechtel built for Saudi Arabia and they would mention the facilities were nuclear bomb proof. Bechtel no doubt did no less for Iran . The day after the Gulf War ended CNN showed Bechtel’s London branch office, in Hyde Park, invited to Iran . Bechtel went through London to avoid the U. S. economic embargo.

During the five-day visit the Tajik defense delegation, in Iran , will meet with a number of political and military officials to familiarize themselves with the country’s defense industries and capabilities. They are probably establishing an Islamic joint headquarters in direct communication with other Islamic governments that are supporting the Jihad.

One of the first areas we may see their military cooperation is against India . The snows of Kashmir melt in May. India has complained regularly about militant bases inside Pakistan . A year ago one of the wire services reported there were 3,000 militants poised to enter Kashmir . Eventually New Delhi will attack them. Pakistan has stated all along if that ever happens they will be forced to respond. In December this site mentioned news that Saudi Arabia conducted ground forces maneuvers with Pakistan , inside Pakistan .

The statements from Adm. Ali Shamkani are the boldest yet as to Iran and the Jihad’s intention to control the Central Asian economy benefiting not only them but other countries, like China, which have played such a crucial role in Iran and Pakistan’s and other Islamic countries military preparation. Beijing wants to see a weaker West, Russia and India since they often, throughout history, have had problems with all three.

These meetings and exchanges fall within, quite naturally, the offensive spectrum of Teheran - Dushanabe - Riyadh - Ankara - Islamabad - Kuala Lumpur . The Jihad is always offensive and today’s example has a very definite, specific, economic agenda. The control of Central Asia’s raw materials, remove India from any involvement with the pipeline through Pakistan and expand Islam’s hold over the raw materials of Southeast Asia .

If Russia had not become so massively corrupt, as she did right after the Cold War, the assistance Tajikistan is now receiving would be coming through Moscow instead of Teheran. Fortunately Russian President Vladimir Putin, found by Germany to put Russia’s budget back in Russia instead of Switzerland, has been able to arrest a lot of the corruption and made Russia’s decision making more responsible. Unfortunately he cannot recall all the Russian scientists that went south when the Soviet Union broke up. I never found out how many.

We are about to see the result of their capabilities that Iran purchased. The initiative is with Iran completely. A year ago the New York Times mentioned that not one Russian air unit was fully operational. Hopefully the situation has improved since then. This is why my most important suggestion to any investor in Eurasia is to support Russia ’s military industrially. To manufacture any spare part or equipment any branch of Russia ’s military may require.

During the Beslan fighting last year the news showed a Russian soldier who ran out of bullets. It wasn’t his fault. He had not been adequately supplied.