Monarchy of Iran
the appointment of the new Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, I have
been reading the reports of “experts” on Iran and the so-called Iran
analysts with some interest.
of these “experts” are professional writers who get paid for their
expertise. I am not one of those and may be my two Cent’s
worth is not as elaborate as their writings. Nevertheless here is my two
Cent’s worth for those of you who are interested.
vast majority of these experts were wrong about predicting the results, yet
they still put forward their comments as expert analysis, before even
examining where they went wrong.
the one hand we have school boy analysis of the likes of John Simpson, who
referred to Rafsanjani as a moderate, and on the other hand we have those
who have a good knowledge of the Middle-East history and dazzle their
readers with such historical references, and for example refer to
Ahmadi-Nejad and his allies as the “new Mamluks”, the Turkish slaves who
were appointed by the Khalifs as military leaders and then rebelled against
don’t share such views. Ahmadi-Nejad’s appointment is not a rebellion of
the military against the turban clad mullahs. Ahmadi-Nejad came to power
with the direct help of the “Supreme Leader” supporters and the ultra
conservative mullahs of the Guardian Council. After all, if this were a coup
by the military, Qalibaf would have been a more suitable choice. Yet the
likes of Qalibaf who had a considerable support amongst the military clan
were completely dethroned as a result of this presidential show.
as Shirin Ebadi correctly said in her speech in London yesterday, the office
of the presidency in the Islamic Republic is not a power base. The
president’s powers are limited and ineffective. The real winner of the
“election” is not the new president, it is the powers behind him who
showed what they can do and are capable of.
presidential show in Iran was a real muscle flexing exercise by the
different power bases. The winner was someone that not many people have
talked about. The real winner has been Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the
Supreme Leader. Only Karrubi so far has dared to mention his name, other
than that not many people know much about him and there is not even a photo
of him around. Journalists have simply missed out on his role and if there
has been a mention of him it has been in quoting Karrubi. So who is this
mysterious son of Khamenei and why did he use all his father’s influence
to organise Ahmadi-Nejad’s victory?
to the Islamic Republic constitution itself, the son of the Supreme Leader
has no constitutional rights to exercise such interference, but what
happened in Iran in this presidential muscle flexing was in the same mould
as what happened in Iraq, Syria and North Korea. Although these countries
bear the name of Republic, with a life appointed equivalent of the
“Supreme Leader”, over the time the practice of nepotism and clan mafia
led to the Republic being a name only and the sons of the life time
presidents took over as heirs to the throne in a despotic Monarchy. This is
what we saw in Syria, North Korea and probably in Iraq, had Saddam remained
we see in Iran is just that. The people of Iran did not overthrow a Monarchy
in 1979 to replace it with a Republic. Ultimately they replaced one dynasty
in my opinion forget about the school boy analysis of “Ahamadi-Nejad’s
program appealed to the poor” poppycock and the “New Mamluk” theories,
watch out for Mojtaba Khamenei, the new heir to the throne.
muscle flexing of course will continue and it will have an interesting
climax. Right now Rafsanjani’s clan are very scared of the new powerful
family threatening their empire. However being a shrewd Godfather,
Rafsanjani is pushing Karrubi in the front and watching with interest what
will happen. To Rafsnajani, how the new heir to the throne will deal with
karrubi’s protests will give him a good benchmark of how powerful the
rival clan is. Then Rafsnajani will decide whether to stand up and fight for
his family interests or compromise.
the outcome, the more suitable name for the rulers of Iran is the Islamic
Monarchy of Iran and not the Islamic Republic of Iran.