We are losing this war.
For every dollar spent by Al Qaida we spend a million (that is also our
estimate). We can protect the oil fields but everyone knows we cannot
protect the pipelines cheaply. To protect the supply lines will add
billions to our tab. The largest beneficiary of the recent oil price
increase has been the oil suppliers, and that means that those who donate
money to Al Qaida have benefited. We supply the dollars which are donated
to the Al Qaida. We have plugged the major routes for the donations but it
is the small holes that are nearly impossible and it is that million to
one ratio that gets us eventually.
Al Qaida is not an organization that can be defeated by police action as
in Falluja or in Iraq. We have lost Iraq. The conclusion is merely to
unfold. If we try to impose westernized Iraqis we will face insurgency of
the wahhabis joined by the Shias of the south. If we let the elections be
then we make the anti-American mullahs the ruling clique. Either way we
will withdraw declaring victory because we have held elections and the Iraqi
Christians will pay by being totally eliminated. We will be dealing with
"death to the great Satan" ayatollahs of the Iraqi variety.
Consequence of 2 above will be that the insurgency will then move in full
force into the desert of Saudi Arabia and the house of Saud will be
history. It has no legitimacy and will not stand. Welcome to an anti-American
Arabian government within the next five years.
Muslims around the world are joining the movement because they smell
blood. They sense victory. We treat Al Qaida as a police action, as a
terrorist group that has little or no backing. We claim to have wiped 2/3
of the group, but we do not mention the hundred of thousands in Europe and
in America who are now beginning to make their minds about which side they
want to align themselves. And all indications are that Al Qaida is winning
the battle for the hearts and minds of the Muslims big time.
Calls for isolation of the Muslims is the call for the Israeli solution of
building a big big wall. We can do that and we will protect the homeland
via homeland security but the cost to doing trade and dealing with the
rest of the world (Europe, china, India, far east) will be exacted from us
and not from the Chinese and the Indians. We will find our trade with Europe
and companies and their boards doing trade with us will be targeted.
6. And then there is Iran. A nuclear Iran. An Iran where even our allies
of allies UK is saying that taking the route of force is simply out of the
question. Iran will be nuclear within 2 years. Saddam was 10 years away.
Are we ready to take Iran on also without the Europeans? As the Mohamed
ElBaradei of the UN said today, that nuclear proliferation race is on and
it is a race against time. Are we really intent on winning this race? Bush
and company better start bringing the American public along on this one.
Better get used to this. This war is not going to be easy and it certainly
is not going to be cheap. Most Americans do not have a clue of how long
and how difficult this is going to be. Unfortunately a lot of Americans
are viewing this as a short term movie that is going to be over soon (in a
few years maximum), we will capture Osama, we will kick ass in Fallujah,
we will have elections in Iraq, and will we have moved any closer to
victory? I think that is when reality will start setting in. The national
debt will be over 10 trillion dollars by the end of Bush jr. term, and
with that kitty we will be facing a world wide reinvigorated insurgency
with very capable political arms. Better start smelling that coffee.
But then those who ache for the arrival of Rapture may see all of the
above as very hopeful signs and may just want it to happen.