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Coming back to the main story, on June 4, 2005, about 10,000 opposition Azerbaijanis chanted “Freedom!” and carried pictures of President Bush as they marched across nation’s capital (Baku), urging the government of this U.S. ally to step down and allow free parliamentary elections this year.   

The spontaneous rally in Baku was the largest of its kind in which opposition demonstrators shouted “Freedom.”  The last time Azeri people came out to demonstrate against the government was in October 2003 when one person died and nearly 200 were injured in clashes between police and demonstrators protesting vote rigging in the presidential election.   

Tensions have been building ever since October 2003 demonstration in this oil-rich Caspian Sea nation in the run-up to parliamentary elections set for November 2005.  Experts from the region predict that Azerbaijan could see a massive uprising similar to the ones that toppled unpopular and autocratic regimes in other ex-Soviet nations of Georgia , Ukraine , and Kyrgyzstan during the past 18 months.   

According to news report, supporters of several opposition parties shouted “Freedom!” and “Free Elections!” while holding placards with such slogans as “Down with robber government!”  Some even carried a picture of Bush with the inscription: “We want freedom!”  Azerbaijanis know that America has its eye fixed on this oil-rich nation. Therefore, carrying Bush’s photo while protesting against the repressive regime meant asking America ’s help to topple the present government.  

The U.S. Department of State has given a statement in which it welcomed granting by the Azerbaijan Government of permit to the meeting of opposition on June 4, 2005, last Saturday in Baku .  State Department spokesperson, Mr. Sean McCormack, underlined that the political rally ended peacefully.  On behalf of the Bush Administration, he called on the government of Azerbaijan to grant permit to further demonstrations of opposition so that the forthcoming fall parliament elections met international standards.  

Why should America have interest in seeing a pro-West government installed in Baku a la Georgia , Ukraine , and Kyrgyzstan ?  The answer lies in the fact that Azerbaijan sits on a massive oil reserve.  Oil output from Azerbaijan is expected to balloon to more than 20 million tones in 2005.  Furthermore, according to President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan , which inaugurated the four-billion-dollar Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline in May 2005, is expected to see output grow further to 50 million tons per year in 2006 Aliyev said at an oil and gas conference.  

It should be noted here that America had backed the BTC project -- an infrastructure initiative that will allow Caspian Sea producers to get their oil to Western markets without going through Russia – that is expected to handle the excess output from the oilfield located on the Caspian Sea .  America is hoping that the BTC pipeline when fully functional would allow the West to depend less on OPEC nation to fulfill their energy demand.  After 2010 when Azerbaijan will produce less oil, then Kazakhstan would commit their crude to the BTC pipeline.  These are the reasons why America and the West would like to see a pro-West government installed in Baku .  The present president, Ilham Aliyev, while maintains good terms with both Kremlin and Washington but fellow Azeris considers him an authoritarian ruler because he has the virtual monopoly to power in Azerbaijan.  

Some experts in Baku say that the opening of BTC marked the unofficial start of the parliamentary election campaign.  President Aliyev and other top officials have offered assurances that the parliamentary vote will be fair.  Opposition leaders, however, voiced their concerns about such exaggerated claims, and expressed a desire to intensify the pressure on the government.  Opposition protesters on June 4, 2005, milled on the streets for electoral amendments designed to dilute the Aliyev administration’s influence over election commissions on all levels.   

In summary, opposition politicians and their supporters took to the streets in Baku to demonstrate against the present regime on June 4, 2005.  The good thing is that Aliyev regime allowed the demonstration to go through.  The parliamentary election is nearing; therefore, the restive opposition politicians are agitating on the streets of the capital.  The Aliyev Administration hailed the opening of BTC pipeline as a monumental achievement; however, the opposition politicians are using the same venue to tell the world that all is not well in this oil-rich Muslim nation as far as democracy and free election is concerned.  Stay tuned for more development in the political front.  My take is that Aliyev is a seasoned politician who would be difficult to remove in the near term.  In addition, the Bush Administration is in good term with him.  Therefore, there is no urgency in toppling Aliyev.  We maybe entering a New World Order but America still calls the shots.     

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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans , USA  

 

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