End of the
Road for Reforms in Iran?
By A.H. Jaffor
Ullah
The recent election on
20 February 2004
was a watershed in the modern history
of
Iran
. By limiting the number of electoral
contestants, the 12-man Guardian Council barred around 2,500 reformers
from standing for election. It should be noted here that the election of
the all-powerful Guardian Council itself is anything but democratic.
Hard-line mullahs control the composition of the Council and so it was
easy for them to decide who would stand for the national election.
The
result, of course, was predictable. Very few reform-minded candidates
were elected; in fact, liberal candidates were barred from contesting.
Hardliners won all five seats in the former capital
Isfahan
, once a bastion of the reformist
movement in
Iran
.
If
the results were predictable, the condemnation from the outside world
was no less predictable. The Wall
Street Journal's editorial of
24 February 2004
, barely four days after the election,
stated, "This time around, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khameini, decided the appearance of democracy was not worth the risk of
another showdown. The list of thousands of disqualified candidates
included more than 80 sitting members of Parliament. Internet providers
were ordered to restrict access to potentially subversive sites."
The world is watching the goings-on in
Tehran
with some trepidation. British Foreign
Secretary Jack Straw said on 23 February that
Iran
's "flawed" elections would
have an impact on the already stalled trade talks between
Tehran
and the European Union. President
Bush denounced
Iran
's parliamentary elections and said
Tehran
's leaders stifled freedom of
_expression. Mr. Bush further said the disqualification of the
candidates "deprived many Iranians of the opportunity to freely
choose their representatives." A statement by foreign
ministers of the European Union,
Iran
's largest trading partner, called the
election a "setback for democracy."
The
Iranian authorities on their part, are hitting back using polemics. The
conservative candidate who topped the February polls said the
United States
had to recognize the reality of the
Islamic Republic and take the first step toward restoring relations.
Iran
's foreign ministry spokesman Hamid
Reza Asefi told the state news agency IRNA that foreign critics of the
parliamentary elections were "not informed of the realities and
complexities of developments under way in
Iran
."
The
Iranian mullahs along with their Ayatollahs are up in arms, saying that
the West has no right to criticize the way Iranians hold their election.
The repressive government of
Iran
has banned a hundred pro-reform
publications, thus effectively stopping the spread of reformist ideas.
By May 2004 the moderate MPs who weren't permitted to contest elections
this February will have to hand over their seats to incoming
conservative MPs. This will create a massive problem for progress in
Iran because, to quote Jon Hemming of Reuters, the "conservatives
have been at pains to present an image of moderation and scotch fears of
a crackdown on new social freedoms, the main tangible achievement of
Khatami's government."
Just
before the elections, the government shut down the last two big
reformist newspapers in
Iran
. These dailies had published a letter
written by a hundred reform-minded MPs to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei accusing him of presiding over a system that trampled on
people's rights. Culture Minister Ahmad Masjed Jamei sent a letter to
Mr. Khatami three days after the election, protesting the closure of the
newspapers.
The
February elections are a serious blow for moderate Iranians who are
tired of
Iran
's insular mullahs leading civil
society back into the dark ages of early Islam. On 23 February 23, 2004,
the defeated force proclaimed in Parliament that the election was
rigged. Angry voters attacked state offices in the southern city of
Kohkilouye
and damaged vehicles, the official
IRNA news agency said. Eight people were killed and 30 injured in two
other southern towns in similar protests over the election weekend.
In 1997 when the Iranians were electing their president, they thought it
would be a good idea to elect someone perceived by the West to be a
moderate. Mr. Khatami's resounding victory in that election gave the
rest of the world hope concerning
Iran
. Mr. Khatami, though, is a moderate
who has disappointed many by failing to stand up to his opponents, the
hard-line mullahs. He could not say "no" to the decisions
taken by the Guardian Council, he watched silently as the reformist
party candidates were barred from the election. Then the mullahs came up
with the idea of forming the Guardian Council to protect their Islamic
Revolution of 1979. In 2000, Iranians elected a relatively liberal
majority from a carefully screened list of candidates for their nation's
Majlis or Parliament. However, despite some small amount of progress,
the Ayatollahs of Iran have always stalled reform measures. Reforms,
although showing early promise in 2000 and 2001, have actually been
going nowhere in
Iran
.
In
the tussle between the mullahs and Khatami's followers, the former has
come up trumps. When President Khatami's term ends in 2005, the country
will choose a new President. All indications are that
Iran
may go in for a hardliner mullah as
their next leader. A bleak outlook for reforms in
Tehran
, indeed.
Dr.
A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans,
USA
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