Iran's Stolen Election
Submitted by Ali Sina on Wed, 06/17/2009 - 06:04
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PDF versionElections in the Islamic Republic of Iran have never been free. Candidates are screened and only those with proven loyalty to the regime are allowed to run. This time, only four candidates from a long list were qualified.
Polls, taken prior to the election indicated that Mir Hussein Mousavi, a reformist Islamist who during the war between Iran and Iraq acted as the prime minster was the forerunner. He was expected to receive less than half of the votes.
Another candidate, Mehdi Karoobi who was one of the architects of the Islamic revolution and a member of the Council of Experts, a religious body that nominates the Supreme Leader, resigned from his powerful position to run for the presidency. He is also a reformist and has a substantial following. Polls indicated that he was favored by a third of voters.
The rest of the votes were distributed between Mahmood Ahmadinejad (13%) and Mohsen Rezai (9%).
As the result the Iranians were surprised when the official news reported that Ahmadinejad was the winner. The incumbent candidate had won the election in a landslide victory with 62.6% of the votes. Mr. Mousavi received 33.7% while Karoubi and Rezai received a humiliating 1%, or less.
The evidence of a massive fraud was overwhelming. Not only had the result grossly contradicted the polls, neither of the challenging candidates won even in their own hometown. Rezai observed that he had more campaign workers than votes.
Ahmadinejad announced his victory before the counting of the ballots was over and Ali Khamanei, the Supreme leader of Iran, rushed to give him his blessing, calling the election “a great achievement” and invited the Iranians to rally behind him before the official result of the elections was known.
Another peculiarity of this election was that the observers from candidates other than the incumbent were not allowed to supervise the counting of the votes.
This was a clear case of a stolen election. So people came to the streets in large numbers to protest. Ahmadinejad acted in the only way he knows how to act, i.e., using brute force. The Basiji security forces confronted the people, beating with electric batons anyone they could find. Those who were most vulnerable were the women and the elderly who could not run fast. One eyewitness from Tehran, calling an Iranian news broadcaster outside Iran reported to have seen an octogenarian beaten to pulp. Another caller from Mashad said she saw a twelve year old boy shouting Mousavi, being mauled and bloodied mercilessly.
The security forces broke into the Tehran University in the middle of the night, beating hundreds of students who were chanting anti-Ahmadinejad slogans.
People went on their rooftops to chant “Allaho Akbar,” as they did thirty years ago when they overthrew the shah. This time the security forces broke into their houses pulled them down and beat them in their own homes.
The government arrested hundreds of prominent opposition leaders, shut down cell phones and the Internet, and jammed satellite TVs. Despite all this, people kept pouring into the streets chanting “Death to dictator” and “Mahmood the Liar. Where is my vote?”
While Mahmood Ahmadinejad, using the government-controlled television was telling the people that he is the president of all the Iranians and “loves them all,” his security forces were beating up the demonstrators, shooting into the crowd killing seven of them and injuring hundreds. Unconfirmed reports put the number of people killed much higher. On Monday and Tuesday an estimated 1,000,000 people came to the streets, to protest against what they called ‘the putsch’.
In an attempt to calm the situation Khamanei met with Mousavi and promised to recount the ballots, the result of which to be known in ten days. (The first time these same ballots were counted in three hours.) The problem is that the body that is supposed to recount the votes is the Guardian Council. The twelve members of this council are appointed by Khamanei and its head is an ally of Ahmadinejad. No one expects that the Guardian Council will find result different from what the government has already announced. People think this is a ploy to buy time and calm tensions.
Interesting things are happening and this could be the beginning of the end for the Islamic regime. Since Khamanei replaced Khomeini in 1989 as the supreme leader, he has systematically taken control of all branches of the government eliminating the powers of his opponents. Now, for the first time in twenty years his authority is challenged. Although criticizing the supreme leader is taboo in Iran, people have started chanting slogans like “Death to Khamanei” and called for his resignation.
People now see that they have been cheated and lied to. They are not likely to take this fraud lying down. They want a re-election not a recounting of the rigged ballots.
On the other hand it would be ruinous for Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader to allow a re-election, which would expose them as cheaters.
To make the matters worse, Ahmadinejad promised to prosecute the clerics who had stolen hundreds of millions of dollars and said that his opponent is crossing a red light. With these threats he closed all doors of reconciliation. This is a declaration of war.
While the idea of punishing the thieves in high places resonates with many the truth is that even the hardliners, including Khamanei, are not innocent ofthe same charge. The demonstrators ask how Ahmadinejad can accuse others of stealing when he is stealing their votes.
This is a total impasse. For either side to back off, would be political suicide. While Ahmadinejad remains defiant and called the demonstrators, hooligans and garbage, and equated them to an angry mob whose favorite soccer team has lost, Khamanei has already blinked when he promised to investigate the allegation of fraud.
No matter what may come out of this situation, Khamanei’s undisputed authority has been undermined. He has lost his credibility and the taboo that the supreme leader cannot be criticized has been broken. The genie is out of the bottle.
Three scenarios are possible.
The first scenario is that the government subdues the demonstrators with brute force and holds onto its power. This is unlikely to happen because the demonstrations are becoming widespread and quashing them is becoming harder. To do so the security forces must shoot into the crowd and kill many of them. As the experience in Tiananmen Square teaches us, brute force works. However, the demonstrations in Iran have passed that stage. They have spread all across the country. The government must kill thousands of people to stop them. Even if they do so, they can no longer claim to be the government of the people. This would be suicidal for Khamanei and the hardliners.
The second scenario is that the two factions, the hardliners and the reformists come to a compromise and share the power. This is also problematic because the people will interpret it as a betrayal of their trust and they will lose confidence in the entire system. Furthermore, why would the reformists who now have the majority of people on their side, want to share power with those who want to destroy them? Even if this happens, a coalition government of such mortal enemies cannot be held together for long.
The third scenario is that a new election is called and Mousavi becomes the president. This will drastically diminish the power of Khamanei who has openly backed Ahmadinejad. For Khamanei, a reduction of power means losing it altogether.
No matter what the coming days may reveal Ayatollah Khamanei is going to be the big loser. Once he loses his credibility, it is a matter of time before he loses his position.
The fact is that Iranians are tired of the Islamic regime. They want freedom and democracy. Let not the chants of “Allaho Akbar” fool you. Read into it as a call to revolution and nothing else.
The reason that an unprecedented 80% of the people came to vote was not to support Mousavi or Karoobi, but to get rid of Ahmadinejad and his repressive regime. The reason they voted for him in 2005 was because he was the only candidate with no turban on his head. At that time he was an unknown figure and he was running against Rafsanjani who few people like.
The Iranian people have not had a candidate of their own since the Islamists took power. Candidates are screened and selected by the regime. Even through these ersatz elections people have tried to vote for the candidate that is less Islamist. Mousavi is not a democrat, but he represents a glimmer of hope. It is much easier to overthrow a moderate Islamic regime that is willing give some freedom to people to voice their dissent than one that represses people, imprisons its opponents and kills its critics. The Iranians are looking for their Gorbachev, not to reform the Islamic regime, but to eventually get rid of it.
I saw the fall of the Shah and the sudden burst of the revolution in 1979. What is happening now is déjà vu. This could very well be the beginning of the end of the Islamic regime. The smell of revolution is in the air. No matter what happens, the Iranians have begun to write a new chapter in their long turbulent history.
_____________
Ali Sina is the author of Understanding Muhammad: A Psychobiography of Allah’s Prophet and the founder of faithfreedom.org
I surely hope so, that
I surely hope so, that Islamic regime disappears and i sure hope that Iran truly becomes independent and NOT an instrument of West or any despotic regime.
Israel and USA should help
Israel and USA should help these students and public for regime change. All Mullahs should be thrown into persian gulf.
Why is no one shooting at the
Why is no one shooting at the Basij who are mostly Hezbollah men or other Iraqi Shia Arabs that are imported by the regime because they hardly trust their own Persian troops?
It was surprising to see so
It was surprising to see so many people took to the street, and most of them look like educated people, and try to over turn this Islamic regime, but still the highest decision is in religious supreme leader.
again and again how it shown how islam is like, like banning the press (oppressing the freedom), but then again the lefties or simply ignorant in the west keep praising how good islam is, its hard when people haven’t live in Islamic or majority Islamic country to make them realized what this doctrine will bring to future civilization when dominate the world
The elements holding power in
The elements holding power in the Islamic Republic and the elements supporting the power holders have no conscience. Thus peaceful protest or civil disobedience is not going to work. The only thing the evil doers believe is in violence. They came to power violently and they can only be dislodged from power through violence. The current rioting is not going make the power holders any lost of sleep. This is a minor nuisance. They will only be alarmed when a hail of bullets fly towards the Basij forces. Sadly, until then didly squat is going to happen. The whole free world can pray and hope and poor Iranians can protest and riot till kingdom come but the mullahs aint gonna run away.
Ofcourse, if the Iranian people resort to violence, the regime will response with equal or more violence. That is the trick. The violence will force Persian troops to question their loyalty and cause cracks in the regime to widen.
Another great analysis from
Another great analysis from Ali Sina as per usual.
The dark heart beating at the center of this mess is sick little Muhammad and his cult of Islam.
It should not be over-looked that, 'thanks to Islam", Ahmadinejad and His immediate supporters actually believe that they are doing the right thing for 'their people'.
Such is the depth of the indoctrination of this particular cult and its evils.
The ayatollah's still the
The ayatollah's still the highest command in iran so it won't change the foreign policy of iran.
Let us wait and see, but one
Let us wait and see, but one thing is for sure, that Islam is inherently hypocritical. Muhammad started it all in denying followers the rights of which he allowed himself. The ruling monarchies of Saudi follows his example and now we see the Ayatollahs stealing the votes but executing thieves. According to me there is no any glimmer of hope until Islam is wiped off completely from the middle east.
May our Iranian brothers and
May our Iranian brothers and sisters kick out the mullahs, with minimum loss of life. We pray for their well being and a bright future without islam.
Dictatorship based on
Dictatorship based on ideologies are difficult to overthrow as history teaches us. Hitler used nazism, Castro used communism, King long il of north korea used communism etc.
Unless outside help is not provided its difficult to expect a change.
Currently approx 20 % of the world is infected with Islam and 30 % communist (20 % chinese). Thus less than 50 % world is free. Islam and communism are working together. Both want to target the free world first and then subdue other. Chinese have expanist ideology with free world falling in science and technology it would immediately grab taiwan, south korea, then Japan, Burma, thailand, vietnam, philipines to start with.
Free world must unite and create a strong bloc against the muslim and communist countries.
I think Islam is worse then
I think Islam is worse then the Communism,as Communism do not want to divide the world on the basis of gender,race,economy,culture etc.Infect it is not a mediaval ideology based on superstition,it is not against the human progress. On the other hand Islam is barbaric mediaval doctrine whose only aim is to repress the weak as the religious minority,women,child, slave etc.It is the main force against human progress,rational thinking,gender equality,SCIENCE,arts,Cultural activity and so many others.So we should resist Islam on different way other then communism.
It is great that the Iranian
It is great that the Iranian protest features a majority of the educated,I agree that people are beginning to see through the Islamic lunacy over there.
"pathfinder Says: June 16th,
"pathfinder Says:
June 16th, 2009 at 11:20 pm e
Israel and USA should help these students and public for regime change. All Mullahs should be thrown into persian gulf."
Why not all of Europe? Why is it the responsibility of only Israel and the USA?
I would like to see Europe grow a set of balls and start to do their part instead of being appeasers.
There is supposed to be a large demonstration in Iran Thursday. Hopefully this will place more pressure on the ruling elite and give the common Iranian more hope and more power.
The heroic people of Iran are
The heroic people of Iran are brave and this is the end for the clergy. I,m only very concearned about my friends in Tehran. I,m not Iranian. The shouts " allah akbar" are the same shouts they did when they overtrhrough the sha
The bansji is called by the
The bansji is called by the authoroties ANSAR who were the helpers of muhammed, who killed the male population in Banu Quraishi, so everybody can think for themselves
I pray for the brave people
I pray for the brave people of Iran.
The coming fall of Islam in
The coming fall of Islam in Iran???
Mr. Sina do you really think iranians are ready for a system without Islam??
I have my doubts! Are many Iranians, especially of the working class not still deeply rooted in Shiism??
Are they ready for system without the guardian counsel, are they mature enough for a truly pluralistic society?? I really have my doubts!
Islam is not yet rotten to the point where entire muslim nations can rid themselves of it. Is not Shia Islam a deeply seated cord in the iranian psyche??
How will Iran fare with hostile muslim neighbours and a fragile new democracy and ethnic tension within???
Mr. Sina I know you are an atheist but I think that non-christian societys has a very slim chance with real democracy, if not with building a coherent and rooted civili order. Buddhist (As I see as the secondbest civilising force next to christianity) countries suffer many problems due to inegalitarian ethos of Buddhism.
Will Iran who has never known christianity as a strong force in its society not succum to either anarchy or a new Shia regime or perhaps a reversion to sunni Islam promoted by its arab neighbours??
In my mind Iran has to keep the Shia republic in place for some time yet, while Iranians educate themselves, reaching a full consensus to overthrow this foolish regime! And iranians has to learn about Christ for without his teachings there is no real spiritual or social progress!
The ways of the West, not in its present multicultural insanity, are nothing but the ways of christianity. For christianity shows us that we are fallen sinners in a fallen world, where there cann be no political or paradise. That we can not save ourselves but that only GodChrist can do this by his sacrifice.
That we are evil not good and pure and righteous as Islam teaches that man can become by submitting to its criminal prophet.
These paradoxial insights is what has led the West to a better if far from perfect life! The murder of Christ in Europe by spoiled, ignorant marxist/ totalitarian intellectuals is what is causing its decline.
Now the "democratic" opposition in Iran yells "Death to the dictator" yes well and the muslims yells death to the infidels!
The circle of violence must be broken not thrown at the Mullahs. Or else Iran will never escape the shadow of its defeat so many years ago to the greedy armys of the first generation of muslims!
You, and other Iranians, may find this arrogant, but that is far from my intension!
I wish you both freedom and prosperity!
My writing is a bit
My writing is a bit flawed:
"there can be no political paradise" no "or" in between!
You have to suffer this im afraid! Im sorry :-)
I am afraid this "uprising"
I am afraid this "uprising" if we are to call it will fail. Not because I am rooting against it. To the contrary, I want it to succeed. However, these Iranians are not willing to commit violence against the authorities and their supporters. If you are not willing to sacrifice, you will not succeed.
The Mullahs in power went through a similar process before they seized power. They and their supporters were willing to commit violence against the Shah. The Shah's brutal retaliation caused frictions within the ruling structure and the security forces which made many of these elements switch sides. Once the Shah realized that he could not depend on his security forces, he escaped.
At present, if they are elements within the security forces who want to switch sides, they are presently waiting on the sidelines because they are not seeing an uprising massive enough for them to take action. Lets admit it. The present uprising is NOT massive enough to reach a tipping point. Thus the elements in the security forces who are sympathetic to the protestors are not willing to expose themselves by switching their alleigience to the uprising which has a very high chance to fail. Until more Iranians come out to protest and are willing to sacrifice.....Nothing is gonna happen. I am truly surprised by the fact that the Iranians have nothing to look forward to and they have everything to gain if the uprising succeeds but not many of them are out there protesting nor are there many who want to commit violent retaliation against the brutality of the Basij. Yet, the Basij has been very brutal and a number of the protestors are already dead and the authorities are contemplating death penalty. Yet, sadly the support for the uprising is NOT massive enough. SAD indeed.
Rex
pathfinder wrote: Israel and
pathfinder wrote:
Israel and USA should help these students and public for regime change. All Mullahs should be thrown into persian gulf.
Not with Obama as president. He stated we are not going to meddle in Iran's problems. Bring back Bush!
Iran will eventually rid
Iran will eventually rid itself of the evils of Islam.
Though it may not happen in our life times.
It will certainly be a long, hard and possibly bloody road, but all nations will eventually refuse to accept the fraud of Muhammads cult and its terribly unjust and insain ideology.
Either way, be it a succesful
Either way, be it a succesful coup or a re-election, do you honestly believe this will change Iran in its hard stand against Israel? I mean , will Mousavi change his views in as far how to deal with the Jews are concern?
To 13 and #20, Europe has no
To 13 and #20,
Europe has no will and balls to fight Islam. They banned a fellow MP Geet Wilders to visit another country in the same union, what they can do?
Infact many are thinking some miracle will happen and jesus or some super hero will come and defeat this islamofacism.
The media and human rights is more busy in defending muslim terrorists, there human rights and giving apologistic barking.
They have maximum presence in palestine or kosovo and even if a muslim gets stomoch problem they blame jews, serbs etc while muslims killing with impunity jews, copts, hindus etc no news. Human rights and media coverage for muslims only.
Regardless of your age and
Regardless of your age and gender, if you had a daughter, would you want her to become Muslim?
Would you tell her that Muhammad and His Islam are a good thing that should be her top priority in life and that she must remain and loyal to it?
Ask these questions (in privacy of course) to the majority of Iranian men and women in the streets of Tehran this evening and listen to their answer. They may have a few interesting things to say...
Dear Mr Ali Sina,
Dear Mr Ali Sina,
Good morning. I want to ask you a question. Can you show me some verses from Quran that Honor Killing is leagalised or said by Mohammad? Since some muslims says Islam Forbid it.
Secondly atlast whom Muslims calims written Quran. What do you actually says who has written.
Thirdly how can you prove that Science in Quran is false or copied or was already known even before Mohammad. If you have written any book please send it to my mail address.
Also send me Mohammad's history.
Mohammad Rahaman
asif_tipl@yahoo.com
If you wish to contact Ali Sina, you can send him an email on faithfreedom2@gmail.com.
My full support to the brave
My full support to the brave Iranian people who are out protesting in the streets and risking their lifes for real freedoms, i hope you over throw the mullas and win your long deserved human rights to live as free people....
HI Muhammad Rahaman. This is
HI Muhammad Rahaman.
This is my article on Honor Killing http://www.faithfreedom.org/oped/sina50128.htm
I have written several articles on Science in the Quran. One of them is a response to Zakir Naik. Here it it.
http://www.faithfreedom.org/debates/NaikCampbellintro.htm
There are many books on the history of Muhammad. I recommend you read Tabari, or Ibn Ishaq.
My book is not the history of Muhammad but it is a psychobiography of him. Instead of narrated the history, it analyzes his actions.
HI Muhammad Rahaman. This is
HI Muhammad Rahaman.
This is my article on Honor Killing http://www.faithfreedom.org/oped/sina50128.htm
I have written several articles on Science in the Quran. One of them is a response to Zakir Naik. Here it it.
http://www.faithfreedom.org/debates/NaikCampbellintro.htm
There are many books on the history of Muhammad. I recommend you read Tabari, or Ibn Ishaq.
My book is not the history of Muhammad but it is a psychobiography of him. Instead of narrated the history, it analyzes his actions. You can find it here.
http://felibri.com/shop/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=65&produc...
Your words, Mr. Sina, speak
Your words, Mr. Sina, speak so hopefully that I am uplifted by them. Yet Boethius speaks so clearly that I am drawn back by what I know. To me Iran is simply caught in a power struggle. Whoever wins, the result will be same.
The tremendous outpouring of protest is related to one issue - the election. Every single person who can/did vote was impacted. Unlike 10 years ago when protests were limited to students, whose support was the passing honk of a car horn. Now, everyone insists on being heard.
What will we hear? Moussavi? What is it I've heard about him and Hezbollah? Do I hear he espouses Iran as a nuclear power? Islam? - do I hear the explanation of Mir? I also hear he can be charming in international relations.
What, of substance, will change? Nothing.
These are not protests to throw off the yoke of Islam.
The Iranian people are simply protesting and fighting for which style of Islam they want to represent them. Hard-line Islam or softer-looking Islam.
It's still Islam.
to Mr annakita #29 Yes,
to Mr annakita #29
Yes, there are shatter of truth in your saying and Mr Ali Sina did sound too optimistic in his evaluation of the current crisis in Iran.
One more thing that we must never negate is that the protestors that come on the street to strike are representing Iranian of various idealogical background, the Liberal Islamist and Reformist could be one of them. Of course they are not all wishing for complete removal of Islam from the republic.
However, there is still glimmer of hope as long as the fundamentalist Mulla are removed and disbanded as gang of thug or mafia. The process to see a true secularised Iran can be achieved through gradual steps, and this is the initial stage of their revolution. Give them benefit of doubt, and surely changes will emerge.
Humanity is but one family. :)
Well, it helps that the
Well, it helps that the Iranian economy is in shambles, I heard 30 % of Iranians are unemployed, there are many drug-addicts. Also, the Ayatollahs seem to have realised that they had a choice between having educating their men AND women or get a lot of dumb muslims, and falling ever farther behind the rest of the world. They chose education. So now there are quite a few educated, reasonable thinking, Iranians, interested in reading, internetting, getting to know the world. Who also speak English and use modern technology well.
Information CAN still get in and out, although severely hampered by censorship, blockading and ubiquitous Islamic propaganda.
So now, instead of an ever more discredited Islam, thanks to the Ayatollahs cruelty and ineptitude, Iranians can seek other, better guidance than Islam. And aspire to put it into practice. I so hope that this process will continue apace and bear fruit someday.
To #30. kenmirzz Thank you
To #30. kenmirzz
Thank you for your reply. I want, very much, to be positive and eager for any change for the better. What stops me, always, is the understanding that in Islam there is no separation between religion and state. In fact, in Islam there is no state. There is only Islam.
I also want to mention another relevant factor. On the "Arab Street,' Iran and the people of Iran are dismissed as "they're crazy." Why? Because they're Shia. Bottom line, it's just another power struggle. A power struggle which will always exist for a people whose religion knows no other way of life.
Hi Annakita, Mousavi is an
Hi Annakita,
Mousavi is an excuse. People want a lot more than Mousavi. They want freedom, democracy and equality for women. If Mousavi does not deliver them, they will bypass him.
This is not about Mousavi. It is about getting rid of Islamic regime. This fraud gave the people an excuse to check mate the regime. The mullahs cannot survive this.
Iran will fall today and with it Islamic terrorism will end. This won't happen tomorrow but in a few years. In two or three more decades from this date Islam will become a dead faith.
I said it many time, Isamic terrorism began in Iran and it will end in Iran.
Alisina is too much positive
Alisina is too much positive like Gandhi.When will it happen.It should not be like operation success but patient died.You only said the world will not change by itself exactly one year back(june 15th 2008).Even Karl Marx and Lenin said the same.One should lead an roganised efferot to to change the world.Doctor should treat the patient as early as possible .
If the election itself is fraud and rigged then how can reformist students can come to power AND SAVE THEIR NATION FROM ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DISASTER.How can students out side iran remain mum on these consequences .They can protest in streets before white house and in Newyork.
During last year Olympics Tibetians at least tried to protest to take the notice to the world, the injustice done to them by chinese occupation and got the sympathy.Tamils took their injustice to UNO and its chief.The expatriates should take pressure on international world for probing the alleged election fraud and rigging.
Today Khamanei is going to
Today Khamanei is going to lead the Friday Prayer. The word is spreading that there is a plan by other hardliners to assassinate him, and then they will accuse the demonstrators and will start killing them by thousands to subdue the uprising. Anyone who believes in prayer, please pray for my people.
to Mr Ali Sina
to Mr Ali Sina #35
Apparently they applied the filthy tactics for political advantages. Now they are exercising the Machiaville concept of "Ends Justify the mean". I think Khamanei will utilize the religious ruling of subjugating tumult and oppression (fitna) to claim his supremacy in politics. The Friday preaching will be manipulated as to deceive the gullible public.
I hope there will be no further casualties or life losses in Iran. I will definitely pray for your people.
Humanity is but one family. :)