Out of Sight, Out of Mind – Iran Remains on the Brink

Printer-friendly versionSend to friendPDF versionMelanie Phillips The way in which Iran has disappeared from media view is, although predictable, still dismaying. With the exception of small flurries of interest over the seizure and release of British embassy staff and the tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats, the people’s revolution has pretty well dropped out of sight. This is for two main reasons, one shocking and the other just, well, dispiriting. The shocking one is that the “progressive” Western intelligentsia, who don’t stop hollering and stamping their feet and marching and petitioning and boycotting over the perceived crimes by America or Israel (“torture,” “settlements,” “rendition,” “checkpoints,” “warmongering,” “repression”) are mute over the brutal crackdown that has been going on in Iran these past three weeks, and totally indifferent to the desperate struggle for freedom that is being waged. Dispiriting because the Western media think the story is over, the revolution has fizzled out, and there wasn’t even a leader or a cause to support anyway because Mousavi just represents more of the same old regime. Well as far as I can see it has not stopped. Yes, there’s been a crackdown and the enormous demonstrations have stopped. But it is far from over. Protests are still going on and are still being put down with brutality, as these pictures taken three days ago show. Hundreds of people have either been killed or injured or taken into custody. See here and here, for example. As I have said over and over again, there are two uprisings going on. There’s Mousavi and the internal challenge to the regime amongst the clergy, who remain committed to the Islamic Revolution but differ about the details; and then there are the people being clubbed down on the streets, who want freedom and democracy. Supporting them is surely a no-brainer. Their push for freedom might work – in which case Iran would cease to be a mortal threat to the world. It if didn’t, the world would be no worse off. The belief that supporting them would exacerbate the problem makes no sense. Who would it make hate us? The regime? They could not hate us more than they already do. Western governments are fearful that if they backed the protesters the regime would say the protests were being orchestrated by the West. But they have been saying precisely that from the get-go anyway. And just who do our fearful leaders think might be incited against the west by such claims? Those who back the regime are driven by deranged conspiracy theories about Western influence anyway; and those who aren’t are the protesters, who are the last people to be taken in by such nonsense. Then there’s the argument that support is pointless because the regime has won. Those who know the country say this is far from the case. There is now a power struggle going on amongst the ayatollahs and it is far from clear how this will end. According to Amir Taheri, this fight will have one of two outcomes: an end to the pretence of democracy, with the theocratic regime embedding itself as an “imamate;” or else an end to theocracy and its replacement by a true democracy. Taheri also suggests that as a result of the continuing protests even the fearsome security apparatus may be starting to splinter:

The regime has deployed 100,000 men from the paramilitary Basij to control Tehran and eight other major cities. But such a build-up cannot be sustained. There is the risk of the fighters siding with the protesters. Hussein Taleb, the commander-in- chief of the Basij, said yesterday that ‘large numbers of individuals dressed as members of the Basij’ have been arrested after they took part in protest marches. The Basij, mostly teenagers from the provinces, are vulnerable to ‘seduction’: people invite them into their homes, give them food and soft drinks, and ask them to swap sides. ‘Exposed to this kind of brainwashing, some might succumb to temptation,’ Taleb admits.

If the Basij disintegrates, the regime could play its trump card: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, the IRGC is also split, with an unknown portion of it sympathetic to the opposition. Worse still from the regime’s point of view, the IRGC if unleashed may be tempted to grab power for itself rather than protecting the mullahs. The unknown is the intention of the millions who remain angry at the regime. To judge by the continuing sporadic demonstrations, and chants of ‘Death to the dictator!’ shouted from rooftops, the genie appears unwilling to return to the bottle.

Desperate at the refusal by the West to support freedom against tyranny in Iran, the Iranian writer Amil Imani has now launched a petition. Reading it, I was struck by the list of actions Imani wants the West to take against the regime. Those who wring their hands and suggest that there is no alternative to war other than appeasement should read this list:

* Enforce the UN sanctions by inspecting every vessel headed for Iranian ports to make sure they are not ferrying prohibited material. Other than vessels known to be carrying foodstuff and medicine, each ship should be subjected to elaborate inspection.

* Establish an Iran Assistance Fund, from Iran’s frozen assets as well as contributions from peace-loving individuals and organizations, to assist Iranian families during the hardship that the sanctions may create.

* Persuade Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and other Persian Gulf oil producers to significantly increase their output and drastically cut the price. It is what they must do to help forestall the emergence of a nuclear clerical Iran bent on ruling the region.

* Obtain court orders to freeze the overseas assets of Iranian leaders, since they are clearly ill-begotten funds that rightfully belong to the nation.

* Shut down, or severely restrict the operation of the Mullahs' businesses in Dubai and other Persian Gulf states.

* Reduce the staff or completely shut down Iranian missions. Severely restrict Iranian officials and nuclear scientists from foreign travel. Recall your ambassadors from Iran.

* Deny the Iranian airlines operation and encourage non-Iranian airlines to cease serving the country. Provide for flights that serve emergency medical and other health needs of the Iranians.

* File legal charges against the leaders of the Islamic Republic's wanton violation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; for their crimes against humanity, genocidal actions against religious and political groups; for support of international terrorism; for demolition of religious sites and cemeteries; for rape, torture, and summary execution of prisoners of conscience; for forgery of documents, for acts of blackmail and fraud, and much more.

* Declare and treat the clerical regime as illegitimate.

* Stop or slow down Iran's import of refined petroleum products.

* Shut down the Islamic Republic's web sites and block their television and radio broadcasts.

* Locate and seize the regime's front organizations such as Alavi Foundation in New York City.

* Identify the agents of the Islamic Republic and prosecute them as promoters of international terrorism.

* Investigate individuals and organizations that lobby or front for the Islamic Republic.

* Take all necessary steps to stop investments in Iran. Persuade banks to refrain from dealing with Iran and the issuance of letters of credit.

* Pressure businesses to stop dealing with Iran.

* Pressure governments to stop doing business with Iran. Warn countries such as China and Russia against circumventing the U.N. resolution and engaging in commercial adventurism.

If America, Britain and Europe were serious about trying to stop the Iranian regime from getting the bomb, that’s precisely what they should have been doing. The fact that they have not shows they are not in the slightest bit serious about stopping it. So who can be surprised that they should have abandoned the Iranian people in their own struggle against this tyranny? People say the crumbling of the Soviet Union is not comparable because the situation in the Muslim world is very different. So it is. But certain things are not so different – indeed, they are constant the world over. Such as the fact that the yearning for freedom is a human given and it is unstoppable. And the fact that appeasement of tyranny always leads to worse; and that if those who are fighting for freedom are properly supported, they have a much better chance of winning. As the former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar has written:

If there hadn’t been dissidents in the Soviet Union, the Communist regime never would have crumbled. And if the West hadn't been concerned about their fate, Soviet leaders would have ruthlessly done away with them. They didn't because the Kremlin feared the response of the Free World. Just like the Soviet dissidents who resisted communism, those who dare to march through the streets of Tehran and stand up against the Islamic regime founded by the Ayatollah Khomeini 30 years ago represent the greatest hope for change in a country built on the repression of its people.

... This is no time for hesitation on the part of the West. If, as part of an attempt to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, the leaders of democratic nations turn their backs on the dissidents they will be making a terrible mistake. President Obama has said he refuses to ‘meddle’ in Iran's internal affairs, but this is a poor excuse for passivity. If the international community is not able to stop, or at least set limits on, the repressive violence of the Islamic regime, the protesters will end up as so many have in the past -- in exile, in prison, or in the cemetery. And with them, all hope for change will be gone.

One of the greatest explosions of the desire for freedom by a subject people in our time, and all the West did was to sit on its hands while making eyes at the oppressors. FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributor Melanie Phillips is the author of the powerful and frightening Londonistan, and she blogs at The Spectator